The Impact of the US Government Shutdown on Scientific Research May Last Longer Than the Shutdown Itself

Impact of the Shutdown: American scientific communities are severely affected during government shutdowns. During these periods, government scientists are sent home without pay, federal agencies suspend new grant opportunities, specialized review committees halt, and the collection and analysis of vital public data related to the economy, environment, and public health cease.

Higher Stakes: In 2025, the stakes appear higher than in previous shutdowns. This shutdown comes at a time when American science and innovation are experiencing significant disruptions, driven by President Donald Trump's ongoing attempts to expand executive power and exert political control over scientific institutions. As the shutdown enters its fifth week, with no signs of ending, the rapid and controversial changes made by the Trump administration to federal research policy are reshaping the social contract between the U.S. government and research universities. This contract stipulates government funding and autonomy in exchange for the promise of future public benefits.

Research Challenges: From the perspective of a physicist and policy researcher, the trajectory of American science funding is directly impacted as a recipient of federal grants. Challenges include research into the history and governance of U.S. science policy, including the nation's investments in research and development. In the context of broader reforms to federal grant-making policies, immigration for highly skilled students and workers, and scientific integrity, this shutdown carries known and unknown consequences for the future of American science.

Funding Freezes, Data Gaps, and Unpaid Workers

The Story of Government Shutdowns: Over the past two decades, the story of government shutdowns has become all too familiar. Shutdowns occur when Congress fails to pass an appropriations bill before the start of the new fiscal year on October 1, and thus, according to Article One, Section 9 of the U.S. Constitution, the government cannot spend money. This funding gap affects all government operations except essential ones, such as the work of postal workers, air traffic controllers, and satellite operators. Non-essential employees, including tens of thousands of government scientists, are prohibited from working and stop receiving their salaries.

Scientists and Program Staff: With scientists and program staff remaining at home, activities in nearly two dozen federal agencies involved in research and development, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, come to a halt. New grant opportunities and review committees are postponed or canceled, researchers in government laboratories cease collecting and analyzing data, and university projects reliant on federal funding are jeopardized.

Extended Shutdowns: Extended shutdowns accelerate the damage. They leave larger gaps in government data, push federal employees into debt or force them to deplete their savings, and compel academic institutions to lay off staff paid through government grants and contracts.

Funding, Public Services, and the Rule of Law

Scientific Agencies: Even for shutdowns lasting a few days, scientific agencies may take months to process backlogs of paperwork, payroll, and peer review committees before returning to normal operations.

Increasing Challenges: This year, the government faces increasing challenges to overcome once the shutdown ends: Trump and White House budget director Russell Vought are using the shutdown as an opportunity to "drain the swamp" and pressure universities to comply with the administration's ideological stances on topics such as freedom of speech on campuses, gender identity, and admissions standards.

Budget Stalemate: As the budget stalemate approaches a record for the longest shutdown ever, agency furloughs, workforce reductions, canceled grants, and jeopardized infrastructure projects document the devastating and immediate damage to the government's ability to serve the public.

Full Impact of the Shutdown: However, the full impact of the shutdown and the Trump administration's broader assaults on science on the international competitiveness of the United States, economic security, and electoral politics may take years to fully emerge. Simultaneously, the significant decline in international student numbers, the financial pressures facing research institutions, and research security measures to limit foreign interference all portend an uncertain future for American higher education.

White House or Congress: With neither the White House nor Congress showing any signs of reaching a budget agreement, Trump continues to test the limits of executive power, reinterpret the law, or simply disregard it. Earlier in October, Trump redirected unspent research funds to pay service members who had been furloughed before their October 15 payday. This reappropriation of funds represents a direct challenge to the authority granted to Congress—not the president—to control federal spending.

White House Promise: Furthermore, the White House's promise to dismiss 10,000 additional civil servants during the shutdown, its threat to withhold back pay from furloughed workers, and its push to terminate any programs whose funding has ended "do not align with the President's priorities" are all moves to expand presidential power. Here, the damage to science could worsen. If Trump and Vought sufficiently curtail congressional authority by making funding decisions or closing legal agencies, the next three years will see an unknown quantity of research funds sequestered, canceled, or redirected.

Government Shutdown: The government shutdown has emptied many laboratories staffed by federal scientists. Coupled with other actions taken by the Trump administration, more scientists may continue to face a loss of funding.

Science, Democracy, and Global Competition

Technology as a Pillar: While technology has long served as a fundamental pillar of national and economic security, science has only recently emerged as a major driver of broader geopolitical and cultural change. China's extraordinary ascent in science over the past three decades and its arrival as a major technological competitor to the United States have overturned the traditional wisdom that innovation can only flourish in liberal democracies.

White House Efforts: The White House's efforts to centralize federal grant-making, restrict freedom of expression, erase public data, and expand surveillance reflect China's successful plan to build scientific capacity while suppressing dissent. With the Trump administration's vision for American science becoming clearer, it remains uncertain whether, after the shutdown, it will be able to outcompete China by following its lead.